TODAY COMMODITY MARKET UPDATES FOR 15/04/2013

Gold: Crashing down
Weekly close: $1,478.35

Gold is forming a wave extension on the downside. It has been falling since the last few months but the angle of decline was not a sharp one. However, as the yellow metal has broken the support zone consisting of multiple intermediate bottoms, it has gathered huge momentum on the way down. Thus, a reversal for the bearish view can now be trailed above that, ie at $1,527. The initial target on the downside remains at the lower end of the medium-term falling channel, ie $1,405. If the bears manage to breach that trendline, then they can target the long-term rising trendline, ie $1,340.


Trend :     Trend Reversal     Supports            Resistances      Target
Down :      $1,527.0                  $1,450/1,400      $1,500/1,521       $1,405/$1,340

Silver: Smashed down
Weekly close: $25.850

For several weeks, silver was trading in a narrow range and had formed a bearish triangular pattern. Silver broke down from the bearish triangle and has resumed with the overall downtrend. On the downside, the white metal has cracked through multiple previous lows and has even extended below the short-term equality target. The subsequent targets on the downside are the lower end of the short-term falling channel ($23.25) and the medium-term equality target ($21.00). The reversal can be tightened to $26.20.


Trend :     Trend Reversal     Supports                    Resistances      Target
Down :      $26.20                     $24.00/22.50              $25.00/26.04       $23.25/$21.00

Copper (Comex): Standing on a diving board
Weekly close: $3.3500

Copper formed a large triangle where the last leg made a throw over of the pattern. The triangle has been formed in the right shoulder of a larger Head & Shoulders pattern. Thus, the red metal seems to be in for a significant decline. The weekly momentum indicator is in a bearish mode.
Copper has broken the lower end of the triangular pattern and has reached the neckline. From a medium-term perspective, copper can target the previous low of $2.994 and the equality target, ie $2.58. On the flip side, the swing high of $3.576 will act as a strong resistance.

Trend :     Trend Reversal      Supports                      Resistances                 Target

Down :        $3.576                       $3.23/3.00                     $3.45/3.55                      $2.994/$2.58

Crude oil: Flowing southward
Weekly close: $91.29

Crude oil has been oscillating about its crucial weekly moving averages. The oscillations have taken place in between two converging trendlines. In terms of the price pattern, the oil has formed a large distribution triangle. From the upper end of the pattern, the oil has started next leg down. Last week’s high of $94.83 will act as a strong hurdle on the upside. The weekly momentum indicator has given a fresh sell signal. Overall, the oil is expected to fall towards $84.00-$77.28.

Trend :     Trend Reversal      Supports                      Resistances                 Target
Down :      $94.83                      $86.20/80.00                $92.55/94.00                  $84/$77.28

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MCX Commodity Tips ~ Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude Oil Updates Today 10 April 2013

Gold eased at the domestic bullion market today on further selling from stockists and investors and subdued retail buying, mainly influenced by bearish global trend. Silver ended stable amidst thin activity. Standard gold of 99.5 per cent purity fell by Rs 100 to finish at Rs 29,300 per 10 grams from Monday's closing level of Rs 29,400. 

Pure gold of 99.9 per cent purity also slid by a similar margin to conclude at Rs 29,450 per 10 grams from Rs 29,550. Silver ready (.999 fineness) quoted steady at its previous level of Rs 52,500 per kilo. At the global front, gold declined on strong dollar as well as continued outflows from exchangetraded funds (ETF) put pressure on the metal. 

In New York, gold for June delivery slipped USD 3.40 to USD 1,572.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the NYMEX late yesterday. Silver for May contract went down 8 cents to USD 27.14 an ounce.

Brent crude futures rose above $105 per barrel on Tuesday after data showed China's inflation in March was slower than expected, giving its central bank room to keep monetary policy easy and supportive of oil demand in the world's second-biggest consumer. 

Oil prices were also underpinned by worries over increasing tension in North Korea and a stalemate in talks between Iran and Western nations. Front-month Brent futures rose 55 cents to $105.21 per barrel by 0445 GMT, after moving in a $2-range and finishing 0.5 percent higher in a choppy session on Monday. 

U.S. crude futures rose 31 cents to $93.67 per barrel. Brent may trade between $103 and $110 per barrel in coming weeks, LeBrun added. 

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MCX Commodity Tips ~ Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude Oil Updates Today 08 April 2013

Gold edged higher on Friday, as the dollar cut earlier gains against the euro and the yen and European shares dropped as investors anticipated potentially weak U.S. non-farm payrolls data. 

The metal matched a similar pattern in other commodities, such as copper, further recouping heavy losses seen in the previous session, as investors refrained from taking large bets. 

An improving growth trend in the United States has been a key driver for investors taking on more risk this year, but weaker-than-expected data this week on manufacturing activity and private sector hiring has suggested the momentum might be flagging. 

Select base metal prices dropped further at the non-ferrous metal market here today on consistent stockist selling amidst weak demand from industrial users on back of lower London 

Metal Exchange (LME) cues. Meanwhile, zinc and lead prices edged-up on better offtake from consumer industries. 

Copper cable scrap and copper wire bar both declined by Rs 3 per kg each to Rs 474 and Rs 502 from Rs 477 and Rs 505. 

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MCX Commodity Updates ~ Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude Oil Tips Today 05 April 2013

Gold fell for a fourth day on Friday, holding near its lowest point since May last year, as investors await U.S. jobs data for more clues on the health of the world's largest economy.

Strong employment data could prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to end its bullion-friendly bond-buying programme earlier than expected and dent gold's safe haven appeal as worries 

about inflation ebb. A drop in bullion holdings in major gold exchange traded funds to their lowest level since August 2012 has also dragged on prices.

Gold eased $1.55 an ounce to $1,551.16 by 0314 GMT, heading for a second week of decline. It fell to a 10-month low at 1,539.74 on Thursday as it failed to react to the shock of the Bank of Japan's unprecedented monetary stimulus and hopes for another European Central Bank rate cut. China being absent from the physical market this week for a Thursday and Friday holiday has added to the overall weakness in metals, Lan also noted.

Bullion has slipped around 4 percent since hitting a hitting a 1-month high in March as investors dumped the precious metal in favour of more risky assets. U.S. gold for June delivery was at $1,551.20 an ounce, down $1.20. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due at 1230 GMT will likely show employers added 200,000 jobs last month after hiring 236,000 workers in February. 

Oil was up in Asia today as cautious traders waited for the release of US jobs data for March. New York's main contract, West Texas Intermediate light sweet crude for delivery in May, added 18 cents to USD 93.44 a barrel and Brent North Sea crude for May increased 16 cents to USD 106.50 in mid-morning trade.

Oil prices had fallen in New York yesterday in the wake of unexpectedly high US jobless claims and concerns about a supply glut in the world's largest economy and energy consumer. 

The US Labor Department will release its jobs and unemployment report later Friday. Most analysts have pencilled in US jobs growth of 192,000 in March, down from a February spike of 236,000.

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