Accumulate gold but be cautious on silver

Why is silver continuing to outperform gold? The silver/gold ratio tends to lead or follow the stock market. Risk assets are outperforming. Silver is outperforming gold as a risk asset. It is not outperforming for monetary reasons. That occurs when both gold and silver advance but silver outperforms gold. This is one of several reasons why bugs should be wary of silver in the near-term.

Typically the stocks will lead the commodity. Relative weakness of stocks against the commodity is always a warning sign. Remember 2007-2008 (to use an example)? When we analyze a chart, where SLV along with four silver stocks charted against SLV, we can see that, prior to the big breakout at the end of the summer, three of the four stocks were outperforming silver. Today, silver is within a hair of its high yet the stocks are badly lagging.

There are other reasons to be cautious. Silver remains a whopping 34% above its 200-day moving average. Sentimentrader.com reports that public opinion (as of last week) was 71% bulls. That is likely even higher now. Does this all sound like a precursor for another breakout in silver? In four and a half months silver gained over 70%. The market will digest that move before beginning another impulsive but sustainable advance.